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The consensus among currency traders for a continuing weakening of the dollar is overwhelming. - Ashraf Laidi Quotes

The consensus among currency traders for a continuing weakening of the dollar is overwhelming.

Today's inflation figures have boosted the dollar across the board on accumulating chances that the Fed will raise interest rates as early as this summer. - Ashraf Laidi Quotes

Today's inflation figures have boosted the dollar across the board on accumulating chances that the Fed will raise interest rates as early as this summer.

After the Fed comes out with its rate hike, and when it communicates to the market that it's satisfied with where rates are for the time being, then we may go back to focusing on the deficits. - Ashraf Laidi Quotes

After the Fed comes out with its rate hike, and when it communicates to the market that it's satisfied with where rates are for the time being, then we may go back to focusing on the deficits.

This last comment is crucial, especially when the U.S. Congress last night rejected restrictions on tax cuts and spending, and raised the federal debt limit by $800 billion, to $8.18 trillion. - Ashraf Laidi Quotes

This last comment is crucial, especially when the U.S. Congress last night rejected restrictions on tax cuts and spending, and raised the federal debt limit by $800 billion, to $8.18 trillion.

The latest change in rhetoric -- especially from the previously reluctant government officials -- increases speculation of a March policy shift. - Ashraf Laidi Quotes

The latest change in rhetoric -- especially from the previously reluctant government officials -- increases speculation of a March policy shift.

If China was to completely get rid of its currency peg, and the yuan became completely convertible, it would fall under pressure. It would become another Thai baht. - Ashraf Laidi Quotes

If China was to completely get rid of its currency peg, and the yuan became completely convertible, it would fall under pressure. It would become another Thai baht.

Now that the Fed's tightening is expected to carry well into first quarter, currency markets could prove rewarding to the dollar ahead of the December meeting. We still stand by our call expecting the dollar to reach a short-term bottom at $1.36 by year-end. - Ashraf Laidi Quotes

Now that the Fed's tightening is expected to carry well into first quarter, currency markets could prove rewarding to the dollar ahead of the December meeting. We still stand by our call expecting the dollar to reach a short-term bottom at $1.36 by year-end.

Now that the Fed's tightening is expected to carry well into first quarter, currency markets could prove rewarding to the dollar ahead of the December meeting, ... We still stand by our call expecting the dollar to reach a short-term bottom at $1.36 by year-end. - Ashraf Laidi Quotes

Now that the Fed's tightening is expected to carry well into first quarter, currency markets could prove rewarding to the dollar ahead of the December meeting, ... We still stand by our call expecting the dollar to reach a short-term bottom at $1.36 by year-end.

Industrial output does show we are still in a slowdown, but it does show we may be nearing the bottom of a slowdown. We are still not out of woods yet. January was a slow month, but we could see some brightening of prospects after the first half of this year. - Ashraf Laidi Quotes

Industrial output does show we are still in a slowdown, but it does show we may be nearing the bottom of a slowdown. We are still not out of woods yet. January was a slow month, but we could see some brightening of prospects after the first half of this year.

Industrial output does show we are still in a slowdown, but it does show we may be nearing the bottom of a slowdown, ... We are still not out of woods yet. January was a slow month, but we could see some brightening of prospects after the first half of this year. - Ashraf Laidi Quotes

Industrial output does show we are still in a slowdown, but it does show we may be nearing the bottom of a slowdown, ... We are still not out of woods yet. January was a slow month, but we could see some brightening of prospects after the first half of this year.

One asks how can players rush into selling the dollar -- albeit at these attractive technical levels -- in the face of the Fed's bolstering, anti-inflation rhetoric? - Ashraf Laidi Quotes

One asks how can players rush into selling the dollar -- albeit at these attractive technical levels -- in the face of the Fed's bolstering, anti-inflation rhetoric?

The budget deficit is on the radar again due to the emergency spending packages and the lack of any freeze or phasing out of tax cuts, - Ashraf Laidi Quotes

The budget deficit is on the radar again due to the emergency spending packages and the lack of any freeze or phasing out of tax cuts,

Currency markets go in trends, and this is definitely a trend. We are in the nascent stages of a long-term decline in the dollar. - Ashraf Laidi Quotes

Currency markets go in trends, and this is definitely a trend. We are in the nascent stages of a long-term decline in the dollar.

It's good for the U.S. to see a relatively weaker dollar, but it's not a good idea for the U.S. Treasury to signal it wants a weaker dollar. The decline in the U.S. currency could be faster than they wish. - Ashraf Laidi Quotes

It's good for the U.S. to see a relatively weaker dollar, but it's not a good idea for the U.S. Treasury to signal it wants a weaker dollar. The decline in the U.S. currency could be faster than they wish.

We can expect to see worse numbers to come. The simple reason is when there is a rise in oil prices that increase in oil price for a particular month does not tend to spill over into the trade deficit until the next month. - Ashraf Laidi Quotes

We can expect to see worse numbers to come. The simple reason is when there is a rise in oil prices that increase in oil price for a particular month does not tend to spill over into the trade deficit until the next month.

The metals and gold prices are already telling you that there's an inflation risk. So if they're going to push the dollar weaker, the risk of inflation could be sparked even higher if the dollar falls and oil prices remain at the level they're right now. - Ashraf Laidi Quotes

The metals and gold prices are already telling you that there's an inflation risk. So if they're going to push the dollar weaker, the risk of inflation could be sparked even higher if the dollar falls and oil prices remain at the level they're right now.

Gold

Today's trade figures are a stark reminder to the structural deficiencies of the U.S. economy and the reason for our negative dollar outlook for the year despite (its) recent bounce. - Ashraf Laidi Quotes

Today's trade figures are a stark reminder to the structural deficiencies of the U.S. economy and the reason for our negative dollar outlook for the year despite (its) recent bounce.

This speech is not going to change anybody's mind that the Fed will raise interest rates next week. But it leaves up in the air what the Fed will do at its next meeting in May. - Ashraf Laidi Quotes

This speech is not going to change anybody's mind that the Fed will raise interest rates next week. But it leaves up in the air what the Fed will do at its next meeting in May.

The rise in the dollar is likely to be limited to maybe a maximum of 3 to 5 percent. - Ashraf Laidi Quotes

The rise in the dollar is likely to be limited to maybe a maximum of 3 to 5 percent.

Those who expect further rate hikes can note that the real Fed Funds rate has yet to reach at least 3 percent, ... But with oil prices rising 58 percent since last June (when rates started to rise) and with U.S. manufacturing nearing contraction, the bond market is telling the Fed that it had better not raise rates further. - Ashraf Laidi Quotes

Those who expect further rate hikes can note that the real Fed Funds rate has yet to reach at least 3 percent, ... But with oil prices rising 58 percent since last June (when rates started to rise) and with U.S. manufacturing nearing contraction, the bond market is telling the Fed that it had better not raise rates further.

Given the aforementioned dynamics, it is more probable for the U.S. trade deficit to continue soaring to record highs than it is probable for foreign capital flows to keep up with swelling imbalance. - Ashraf Laidi Quotes

Given the aforementioned dynamics, it is more probable for the U.S. trade deficit to continue soaring to record highs than it is probable for foreign capital flows to keep up with swelling imbalance.

Trade

There is a good chance that CPI will be higher than expected. But the question is not only will the CPI reflect the increase in wholesale inflation but whether it will be carried into subsequent months. - Ashraf Laidi Quotes

There is a good chance that CPI will be higher than expected. But the question is not only will the CPI reflect the increase in wholesale inflation but whether it will be carried into subsequent months.

Markets always have a tendency to overreact when they have news. - Ashraf Laidi Quotes

Markets always have a tendency to overreact when they have news.

News

The riots are definitely doing something. It's the usual story of growing unemployment in the euro zone, social unrest that is at first attributed to ethnicity but is really about unemployment and the lack of jobs. - Ashraf Laidi Quotes

The riots are definitely doing something. It's the usual story of growing unemployment in the euro zone, social unrest that is at first attributed to ethnicity but is really about unemployment and the lack of jobs.

This was a key auction for the dollar as it relieves worries of successful financing of the swelling trade gap. - Ashraf Laidi Quotes

This was a key auction for the dollar as it relieves worries of successful financing of the swelling trade gap.

Trade

The press conference by the ECB is going to be hawkish and the president is going to make sure to add the words 'being vigilant,' regarding inflationary expectations. That could actually increase the chances of a March rate hike. - Ashraf Laidi Quotes

The press conference by the ECB is going to be hawkish and the president is going to make sure to add the words 'being vigilant,' regarding inflationary expectations. That could actually increase the chances of a March rate hike.

The press conference by the ECB is going to be hawkish and the president is going to make sure to add the words 'being vigilant,' regarding inflationary expectations. - Ashraf Laidi Quotes

The press conference by the ECB is going to be hawkish and the president is going to make sure to add the words 'being vigilant,' regarding inflationary expectations.

The speech is as expected. He opens the door basically for further interest rate hikes. It shows he totally agrees with the last FOMC statement that said short-term interest rates hikes 'may' be needed. - Ashraf Laidi Quotes

The speech is as expected. He opens the door basically for further interest rate hikes. It shows he totally agrees with the last FOMC statement that said short-term interest rates hikes 'may' be needed.

This could further serve as the natural trigger for the March 8-9 move. - Ashraf Laidi Quotes

This could further serve as the natural trigger for the March 8-9 move.

We expect the yield curve to invert further as long as US stocks continue to show no signs of a retreat and the Fed is priced to tighten. - Ashraf Laidi Quotes

We expect the yield curve to invert further as long as US stocks continue to show no signs of a retreat and the Fed is priced to tighten.

The number is not good for the dollar. There is increased difficulty for the U.S. to finance its swelling trade deficit. - Ashraf Laidi Quotes

The number is not good for the dollar. There is increased difficulty for the U.S. to finance its swelling trade deficit.

The dollar impact will emerge from whether the Fed Chairman confirms the scaling down in market's expectations of a May rate hike. We deem the Fed to be uncertain as to what it will do in the May meeting as it is far too early for the 'data-dependent' institution to decide. - Ashraf Laidi Quotes

The dollar impact will emerge from whether the Fed Chairman confirms the scaling down in market's expectations of a May rate hike. We deem the Fed to be uncertain as to what it will do in the May meeting as it is far too early for the 'data-dependent' institution to decide.

The dollar impact will emerge from whether the Fed chairman confirms the scaling-down in market's expectations of a May rate hike. - Ashraf Laidi Quotes

The dollar impact will emerge from whether the Fed chairman confirms the scaling-down in market's expectations of a May rate hike.

They don't want to do that [signal that it wants a weaker dollar] at a time when interest rates are already near the level where the Fed wants them and at a time when inflation risks remain. The Fed will be unable to push interest rates much much higher when the U.S housing sector has already begun to slow down. - Ashraf Laidi Quotes

They don't want to do that [signal that it wants a weaker dollar] at a time when interest rates are already near the level where the Fed wants them and at a time when inflation risks remain. The Fed will be unable to push interest rates much much higher when the U.S housing sector has already begun to slow down.

This story is important because I don't think we are going to have a lame duck secretary at a time when the president of the fastest growing nation in the world is coming here and when the forefront of relations between China and the US is on finance issues. - Ashraf Laidi Quotes

This story is important because I don't think we are going to have a lame duck secretary at a time when the president of the fastest growing nation in the world is coming here and when the forefront of relations between China and the US is on finance issues.

That would really hurt the U.S. housing market, which is already slowing. It would hurt the U.S. economy and would hurt the rest of the world's economies. - Ashraf Laidi Quotes

That would really hurt the U.S. housing market, which is already slowing. It would hurt the U.S. economy and would hurt the rest of the world's economies.

The combination of cold winter weather and a potential stand-off in the Arabian Gulf in the event of a military strike on Iran is causing many oil analysts to expect $80 per barrel oil as early as this quarter. - Ashraf Laidi Quotes

The combination of cold winter weather and a potential stand-off in the Arabian Gulf in the event of a military strike on Iran is causing many oil analysts to expect $80 per barrel oil as early as this quarter.

It's all about anticipation, - Ashraf Laidi Quotes

It's all about anticipation,

Today's disappointing labor report supports the notion that the emerging soft patch in the U.S. economy is here to stay. - Ashraf Laidi Quotes

Today's disappointing labor report supports the notion that the emerging soft patch in the U.S. economy is here to stay.

With our trading partners slowing down, they're not going to demand a lot of exports from us. - Ashraf Laidi Quotes

With our trading partners slowing down, they're not going to demand a lot of exports from us.

This does not mean that currency markets have completely eliminated all concerns about the trade deficit when assessing the dollar, - Ashraf Laidi Quotes

This does not mean that currency markets have completely eliminated all concerns about the trade deficit when assessing the dollar,

Given the declining trend in net foreign purchases of the past five months, we doubt whether these would be sufficient in covering the $55.8 billion trade deficit, ... In that case, markets should expect intensifying damage for the dollar. - Ashraf Laidi Quotes

Given the declining trend in net foreign purchases of the past five months, we doubt whether these would be sufficient in covering the $55.8 billion trade deficit, ... In that case, markets should expect intensifying damage for the dollar.

Japan is really the industrialized country most heavily dependent on oil imports, ... so the most direct impact of higher oil prices is on the Japanese yen. - Ashraf Laidi Quotes

Japan is really the industrialized country most heavily dependent on oil imports, ... so the most direct impact of higher oil prices is on the Japanese yen.

Japan

Markets could see higher risk of slowing activity from a recurring increase in oil prices. In that case, the Fed will safely close the first chapter of the tightening cycle and move to 'wait' mode. Such a plausible scenario would be a negative for the dollar. - Ashraf Laidi Quotes

Markets could see higher risk of slowing activity from a recurring increase in oil prices. In that case, the Fed will safely close the first chapter of the tightening cycle and move to 'wait' mode. Such a plausible scenario would be a negative for the dollar.

Risk

Today's data are very heartening, especially after Alan Greenspan yesterday played down any potential risks that the United States is having difficulty in financing its trade deficit. - Ashraf Laidi Quotes

Today's data are very heartening, especially after Alan Greenspan yesterday played down any potential risks that the United States is having difficulty in financing its trade deficit.

Past history indicates a relationship between the background of the U.S. treasury secretary and the direction of the U.S. dollar. - Ashraf Laidi Quotes

Past history indicates a relationship between the background of the U.S. treasury secretary and the direction of the U.S. dollar.

You don't have to be a currency analyst to get your story right about the dollar. - Ashraf Laidi Quotes

You don't have to be a currency analyst to get your story right about the dollar.

This is how you make money without venturing abroad. - Ashraf Laidi Quotes

This is how you make money without venturing abroad.

Money

The report came in below the psychologically important $60 billion figure many had been expecting due to mounting oil imports. - Ashraf Laidi Quotes

The report came in below the psychologically important $60 billion figure many had been expecting due to mounting oil imports.

As senior staff come back from the holidays, they are seeing these positions open and just taking some profits. - Ashraf Laidi Quotes

As senior staff come back from the holidays, they are seeing these positions open and just taking some profits.

Holidays Profits

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